October 8, 2003
Possibilities or Probabilities |
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Think
for a moment about the differences between those two words. Do you
ever take the time to ponder what might be possible? Or are you
mostly caught up with focusing strictly on what can be implemented
- right now?
Probability
is a big thing in business. Companies have developed very sophisticated
means of analyzing the various factors that will contribute to or
impede success of a project or idea. Think of all the questions
that are asked and measurements put in place to determine the likelihood
that something will be successful. And, it is common for people
to get paid based on their success rate, so determining the probability
that a project or strategy will contribute a fair return is not
only smart, but necessary. Probability of success, expected return
on investment - these are cornerstones of solid management planning
and decisions, and must never be ignored. Never!
At
the same time, organizations today need more possibility thinking.
They need to be surfacing a larger number of options for consideration
in their funnel of potential opportunities. Marketplace demands
are in a constant state of flux. Tired, previously well-used options
(whose probability of success, by the way, is much easier to calculate)
is not enough going forward. Today you need a portfolio of both
kinds of alternatives, those that have a high chance of successful
and those that, if they were successful, would be a knockout.
Yet,
too many choose not to devote much time to considering possibilities.
After all, it is hard to make a clear case to invest in something
that at best might happen vs. something else that
is quite likely to happen. There is just more inherent risk
in dealing in the world of possibilities.
Consider
for a moment what might happen if the only thing sought by your
organization was high probability options? Is it possible that you
could get flooded with nice, incremental ideas, that could produce
nifty returns, while a key competitor or two was doing something
that would completely change the rules of competition in your industry
and send you reeling? Never forget the beating the Swiss watch manufactures
took, when they dismissed the possibility that people would actually
buy a digital watch, which although was much more accurate, clearly
lacked the traditional Swiss craftsmanship associated with high
quality.
Think
about all the things taken for granted today, that were one time
considered impossible to do. Airplanes, satellite communications,
and super-thin computer monitors and TV's are only a few of the
more highly visible examples that fit into that category. Who would
have ever thought that one could turn a tree into tissue, or old
tires into football fields. It is not too far-fetched to say that
everything that exists today was at one time an impossibility. Thank
goodness many of those items were not discarded, even though their
probability of success, even over the long haul, might be questionable.
Many
years ago a scientist from Bell Labs was giving me his views about
the development of the transistor. He said if they would have had
to put together a formal business case to justify the research costs,
the transistor may never have been invented. The known expense was
greater than the expected benefit. What he then said was they had
no idea that the transistor would ever end up making the kind of
impact that it ultimately did. Remember: the "they" in
this case was some of the best and brightest scientist (and possibility
thinkers) in the world. And even they were unable to see all the
possible benefits that ultimately resulted.
Now,
I do not know if this was just one person's view or was widely shared
around the Labs. But it does pose an interesting question. To what
extent is an organization today ignoring the pursuit of the next
transistor (or other breakthrough), because they are unable or unwilling
to look at the possibilities it may truly offer.
So
rather than only asking about what is available today and rank ordering
the probability of success for each of those alternatives, perhaps
you need to be adding another question to the mix. You also need
to be asking, "what things, if they were possible today, would
have a dramatic impact on the organization's continued success and
profitability going forward?" And your answers to that question
are precisely the frontiers that you need to be committing some
time and energy right now to explore more fully.
That
is what basic research has always been about. But do not assume
that specially trained R&D people are the only ones who are
capable of uncovering new and potentially lucrative possibilities.
Check in with people on the factory floor or handling calls in the
customer care center. You might be surprised at the possibilities
that exist in their heads. And you might then find, that with continued
diligence and execution, you can turn some of those ideas into highly
probable realities that end up producing solid, profitable results.
Reflection
Questions:
Do
you even have a "possible, but highly improbable" opportunity
list? What is on it? What would you need to do to raise the probability
of one of them?
What is one thing that today is considered
impossible, but would in fact have a dramatic impact on your future?
What, if anything, do you intend to do about it?
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