October 8, 2003 Possibilities or Probabilities

Think for a moment about the differences between those two words. Do you ever take the time to ponder what might be possible? Or are you mostly caught up with focusing strictly on what can be implemented - right now?

Probability is a big thing in business. Companies have developed very sophisticated means of analyzing the various factors that will contribute to or impede success of a project or idea. Think of all the questions that are asked and measurements put in place to determine the likelihood that something will be successful. And, it is common for people to get paid based on their success rate, so determining the probability that a project or strategy will contribute a fair return is not only smart, but necessary. Probability of success, expected return on investment - these are cornerstones of solid management planning and decisions, and must never be ignored. Never!

At the same time, organizations today need more possibility thinking. They need to be surfacing a larger number of options for consideration in their funnel of potential opportunities. Marketplace demands are in a constant state of flux. Tired, previously well-used options (whose probability of success, by the way, is much easier to calculate) is not enough going forward. Today you need a portfolio of both kinds of alternatives, those that have a high chance of successful and those that, if they were successful, would be a knockout.

Yet, too many choose not to devote much time to considering possibilities. After all, it is hard to make a clear case to invest in something that at best might happen vs. something else that is quite likely to happen. There is just more inherent risk in dealing in the world of possibilities.

Consider for a moment what might happen if the only thing sought by your organization was high probability options? Is it possible that you could get flooded with nice, incremental ideas, that could produce nifty returns, while a key competitor or two was doing something that would completely change the rules of competition in your industry and send you reeling? Never forget the beating the Swiss watch manufactures took, when they dismissed the possibility that people would actually buy a digital watch, which although was much more accurate, clearly lacked the traditional Swiss craftsmanship associated with high quality.

Think about all the things taken for granted today, that were one time considered impossible to do. Airplanes, satellite communications, and super-thin computer monitors and TV's are only a few of the more highly visible examples that fit into that category. Who would have ever thought that one could turn a tree into tissue, or old tires into football fields. It is not too far-fetched to say that everything that exists today was at one time an impossibility. Thank goodness many of those items were not discarded, even though their probability of success, even over the long haul, might be questionable.

Many years ago a scientist from Bell Labs was giving me his views about the development of the transistor. He said if they would have had to put together a formal business case to justify the research costs, the transistor may never have been invented. The known expense was greater than the expected benefit. What he then said was they had no idea that the transistor would ever end up making the kind of impact that it ultimately did. Remember: the "they" in this case was some of the best and brightest scientist (and possibility thinkers) in the world. And even they were unable to see all the possible benefits that ultimately resulted.

Now, I do not know if this was just one person's view or was widely shared around the Labs. But it does pose an interesting question. To what extent is an organization today ignoring the pursuit of the next transistor (or other breakthrough), because they are unable or unwilling to look at the possibilities it may truly offer.

So rather than only asking about what is available today and rank ordering the probability of success for each of those alternatives, perhaps you need to be adding another question to the mix. You also need to be asking, "what things, if they were possible today, would have a dramatic impact on the organization's continued success and profitability going forward?" And your answers to that question are precisely the frontiers that you need to be committing some time and energy right now to explore more fully.

That is what basic research has always been about. But do not assume that specially trained R&D people are the only ones who are capable of uncovering new and potentially lucrative possibilities. Check in with people on the factory floor or handling calls in the customer care center. You might be surprised at the possibilities that exist in their heads. And you might then find, that with continued diligence and execution, you can turn some of those ideas into highly probable realities that end up producing solid, profitable results.

Reflection Questions:

Do you even have a "possible, but highly improbable" opportunity list? What is on it? What would you need to do to raise the probability of one of them?